It's The People's Seat: How A Simple Man With a Truck and a Dream Will Take Coakley, Obama, and the Far-Left Down

by Justin La Grange

Let's face it, Martha Coakley is a disaster. From opining that devout Catholics should not be allowed to work in emergency rooms to calling the Red Sox's Curt Schilling a "Yankee", you have to wonder what is going on with this crazy person upstairs.

But this race is not even about Coakley -- it's about the ugly Democratic machine. The machine that took Bay State voters for granted as schlubs who would vote for whatever foolish liberal the Democrats deigned to put out there for them, as if they were a formality who services their entitlement monarchist appointments.

But as Scott Brown proudly proclaimed: "With all due respect, it's not the Kennedys' seat, it's not the Democrats' seat, it's the people's seat", he took over the race in that moment. He became the classic story of the good natured underdog with a dream working against an ugly machine, and he deserves the happy ending that will rock modern day American politics to its core, starting with the proud blockade of one of the most corrupt political machinations to come out of American politics in generations, the bribe-laden backroom fiesta of Obamacare.

Massachusetts is a blue state, but people often forget that the kind of Democrat that exists in Massachusetts is a different kind of Democrat than that in California, ala the secular-progressive California nutcases like Barbara Boxer and Cindy Sheehan. Massachusetts Democrats are by and large cool pro-American people who value integrity and honor, and who you can sit down and have a beer with. They value their longstanding traditions with their unions, the Catholic church, and the Democratic Party.

But going back to their smashing Tea Party, they also value the freedom to set their own destiny in motion and value fighting for the underdog. That narrative has caught on in Massachusetts like wildfire, and is resonating in every recent poll that has Brown surging ahead of Coakley. Democrats are reported to be going for Brown 1 to 5, and independents are going for Brown in numbers as low as 2 to 1 and as high as 6 to 1.

If you do the math on those numbers, chances are Brown will come out for the win, taking down Coakley, Obama, and the Democratic machine in what will be one of the most profoundly impossible rises in political history. Even if Martha and her cronies pull it off by a squeaker, liberal Democrats need be running for the hills in 2010.

The Numbers That Lead to Brown's Win

Let's start out with some basic numbers and assumptions. The Massachusetts electorate is reportedly composed of numbers near the following: 37% Democratic, 13% Republican, and 49% Independent, and where the leftover 1% went is anyone's guess. Estimates from recent polling show the following: Democrats coming out for Brown at 1 to 5, which means about 20%. Independents/unaffiliated coming out for Brown at anywhere from 2 to 1 to 6 to 1, but I'll use the lowest 2 to 1 (about 66.66%) to be conservative, and registered Republicans coming out for Brown at least at a 94% rate, although I'm guessing that's even higher. In regards to Joseph Kennedy, people will not turn out to a special election to vote for this guy. For the 1-3% who apparently will, they are reportedly siphoning off votes equally from Brown and Coakley.

Model 1
My first basic model will operate under the assumption that the composition of the electorate will be the composition of the turnout (which is probably flawed and underestimates that Democrats will have suppressed turnout as a percentage, which I'll account for in my next models) and that being very conservative with my numbers, Scott Brown picks up 10% of Democrats, 66% of moderates, and 94% of Republicans.

BROWN
37 D -- 3.7%
13 R -- 12.22%
49 I -- 32.66%
TOTAL: 48.6%

COAKLEY
37 D -- 33.3%
13 R -- 0.78%
49 I -- 16.33%
TOTAL: 50.41%

Coakley wins 50.4% to Brown 48.6%, using a model which is quite favorable to Coakley.

Model 2
My next model makes the extremely probable assumption that the Republican and Independent turnout will be somewhat higher (in real life, probably substantially so) as a portion of their total registered voters than the Democratic turnout, which means we need to change the turnout models by percentage of party turnout. Republicans and Independents are fired up about this election now, and the Democratic machine is desperately trying to get its unenergized disaffected faithful to come out at near acceptable numbers.

I think it’s fair to say that these are fair models for a real percentage of turnout by party, and in my opinion this is still quite conservative in favor of Coakley, who seems to excite no one:

32 D --
15 R --
53 I --

Now lets operate this model with the same assumed percentage of voting patterns by party: Scott Brown picks up 10% of Democrats, 66% of moderates, and 94% of Republicans.

BROWN:
32 D -- 3.2%
15 R -- 14.1%
53 I -- 35%
TOTAL: 52.3%

COAKLEY:
32 D -- 28.8%
15 R -- 0.9%
53 I -- 17.49%
TOTAL: 47.2%

In this very likely scenario, Brown wins 52.3% to Coakley's 47.2%, which is very close to Suffolk/News7's latest poll which says Brown will win 50% to Coakley's 46% (which is essentially the same with the I-Kennedy factor, which it would seem siphoned off an equal amount of votes from both candidates much like my assumptions).

I consider this the most accurate model.

Model 3
Many polling agencies have now reported that independents are going for Scott Brown in numbers as high as 6 to 1, but let’s be conservative and say that the latest polling with independents is 3 to 1 in favor of Scott Brown (75% to 25%). If we assume that turnout by party affiliation is going to be the same as my previous model, then we get the following:

BROWN:
32 D -- 3.2%
15 R -- 14.1%
53 I -- 39.75%
TOTAL: 57%

COAKLEY:
32 D -- 28.8%
15 R -- 0.9%
53 I -- 13.25%
TOTAL: 43%

This model demonstrates that there is a distinct possibility that not only could Brown win, but he could have a blowout win.

Conclusion
I'm going to be conservative and predict the actual results will be between my first and second Model with Brown edging out a 51-47 win. Even if Brown loses, this race wasn't even within earshot of anyone's imagination a few weeks ago, and will still roil the political establishment. Minus healthcare, the damage will still be done down the road for 2010. But on behalf of all that is still good in this country, Brown deserves to win.