by Justin La Grange
2010 SENATE
Right now the Republicans possess 40 seats in the Senate. Therefore according to the chart I will present, seats 40 and below are representing seats that Republicans must defend and seats 41 and above are representing seats that Republicans can potentially pick up. All the data is taken from the most recent available polls, mostly from Real Clear Politics and Rasmussen. Seats that have competitive primaries may be listed more than once if data is available for both candidates versus their challenger(s) in the other party.
SEAT #/.......................%REPUBLICAN....%DEM
CHALLENGERS
#37 BLUNT (R)...............46%.................46%
CARNAHAN (D)
#38 VITTER (R)..............46%.................36%
MELANCON (D)
#39 AYOTTE (R).............40%.................33%
HODES (D)
#40 PORTMAN (R)...........41%.................40%
FISHER (D)
#40 PORTMAN (R)...........40%.................38%
BRUNNER (D)
#41 LOWDEN (R).............49%.................39%
REID (D)
#41 TARKANIAN (R).........48%.................43%
REID (D)
#42 TOOMEY (R).............43%.................42%
SPECTER (D)
#43 SIMMONS (R)...........49%.................39%
DODD (D)
#44 NORTON (R)............45%.................36%
BENNET (D)
#45 GIULIANI (R)............46%................38%
GILLIBRAND (D)
#45 PATAKI (R)..............41%................44%
GILLIBRAND (D)
#46 CASTLE (R)..............47%................42%
BIDEN (D)
#47 BAKER (R)...............47%................39%
LINCOLN (D)
#48 KIRK (R).................41%................38%
GIANNOULIAS (D)
#49 FIORINA (R)............39%................49%
BOXER (D)
#50 INOUYE (D)/#51 DORGAN (D)
As I mentioned in my previous note, potential seats #50 and #51 are occupied by Hawaii Democrat Daniel Inouye and North Dakota Democrat Byron Dorgan. Those races are not competitive right now and consequently no one has produced any data on them. However if current Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle and North Dakota Governor John Hoeven decide to furnish a challenge to these Democrats, those seats become competitive.
We'll see how the political climate goes further into 2010, but the stars must be very much aligned in order for the Republicans to revolve into the majority in the Senate. Boxer will have to sink further, and Lingle and Hoeven must realize how important this life calling is.
2010 HOUSE
As you know, House to House races are far too difficult to reliably compile, especially because they're not terribly high profile at this time. However, prominent analysts are expecting Republicans to pick up at least 20 seats. Generic Congressional Polling also has Republicans higher than they've been for years, generally on par with the Democrats. Rasmussen has Republican up by 4% (43R-39D), and Gallup has Democrats up by 2% (46D-44R)
2009 GOVERNORS
The Virginia Governorship is in severe jeapordy for the Democrats, as Republican Bob McDonnell consistently continues to poll 7-12% above Democrat Creigh Deeds.
The New Jersey Governor's Race is tightening up significantly, partly because Independent Candidate Chris Daggett is a decent moderate candidate and partly because scumbag incumbent Jon Corzine is running ads attacking Republican challenger Christopher Christie about his weight. The most reliable polling still has Christie up by a marginal amount.
SOURCES:
VITTER/MELANCON: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/election_2010_louisiana_senate
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_721.pdf
AYOTTE/HODES:
http://www.wmur.com/download/2009/1005/21207993.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_ayotte_vs_hodes-1093.html
PORTMAN/DEMS:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_september_25_2009/
REPUBLICANS/REID:
http://www.lvrj.com/news/two-could-beat-reid-poll-finds-63955312.html
BLUNT/CARNAHAN:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_september_21_2009
TOOMEY/SPECTER:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1379
GIULIANI/GILLIBRAND:
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20September%20SNY%20Poll%20Release.pdf
PATAKI/GILLIBRAND:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_senate_race
SIMMONDS/DODD:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/election_2010_connecticut_senate_race
NORTON/BENNET:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_senate_race
CASTLE/BIDEN:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/election_2010_delaware_senate
BAKER/LINCOLN:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_baker_vs_lincoln-1102.html
KIRK/GIANNOULIAS:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_senate_election
FIORINA/BOXER:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ca/california_senate_boxer_vs_fiorina-1094.html
GENERIC BALLOTS RASMUSSEN/GALLUP:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123497/Parties-Nearly-Tied-Congress-2010.aspx
PHOTO SOURCE:
http://thestar.blogs.com/.a/6a00d8341bf8f353ef01156f66ab66970c-800wi
